It’s Not Just Schedule Strength, Reds Deserve To Be Top Of The Table

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Arne Slot’s Liverpool are playing fantastic stuff, with the results to show for it. All signs point to these Reds being strong contenders for another league title.

We all know the quote: there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

As Liverpool supporters, we have lived through the reality of losing leagues from very strong positions, even when all the statistics pointed toward some silverware, and much deeper into the season than 11 league matches in. Or, as some idiot writer found out the hard way, writing that Manchester City would have to win out to win the league, only to watch those financial doping, sportswashing bastards do exactly that.

So, we’ve been in a strong position to win the league before. We’ve become a club that not only has lost the league after leading on Christmas, but accomplished that dubious distinction multiple times. We’ve also been the only team to crack 90 points, not once, but twice, and not win the league.

There are no guarantees, and there’s a lot of football left to play. You know all the caveats and all the hits cautioning against getting carried away.

But also, consider this: fuck it.

Activate hype thrusters. Let’s fucking go.

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It’s international break, so let’s allow ourselves to get a little carried away using statistics. Liverpool are league leaders with nearly a third of the games gone, having built up an impressive 5-point gap over Manchester City, and a 9-point gap over Arsenal.

One caveat that rival fanbases have been screaming from the mountain top is that of Liverpool’s comparatively easy schedule. Arne Slot has been banging the same drum, to be fair.

Although it might’ve been true that Liverpool had an easier schedule on paper when the sides kicked off this season, the lived reality is that the Reds aren’t miles behind City or Arsenal in terms of schedule strength. And in fact, their schedules have been roughly comparable, as we’ll see below.

Based on current league position, Arsenal’s average opponent strength is 9.37, harder than average, but only barely so. On the other side, Liverpool’s (10.64) and City’s (10.82) opponents can be said to have been slightly, but not significantly, easier.

Even if you rank opponents based on expected points (xPTS, more on that in a bit), Liverpool’s average opponent is 11.09, roughly in between that of City’s (11.73) and Arsenal’s (9.64). In both cases, this does not account for the fact Liverpool’s strength of schedule is dragged down because of the simple fact that they cannot play themselves.

FFS Slot still hasn’t beaten anyone above him on the table, #SlotOut #FSGOut.

Additionally, the schedules of Liverpool, Arsenal, and City have had quite a bit of overlap thus far. In roughly half of our respective fixtures, Liverpool share the same opponents as City (6 of 11) and Arsenal (5 of 11). Interestingly, it is in these shared opponents that our respective positions on the league table are really highlighted.

In the five shared opponents between Liverpool and Arsenal–Wolves, Chelsea, Bournemouth, Brighton, and Villa–Liverpool have won all 15 points. Arsenal, conversely, drew with Chelsea and Brighton, while losing to Bournemouth. To put it another way, 7 of Arsenal’s 9 point gap to league leaders Liverpool came from these 5 shared opponents.

Likewise, City and Liverpool shared 6 opponents–Chelsea, Ipswich, Brentford, Arsenal, Wolves, Bournemouth, and Brighton–and have dropped 6 more points from those fixtures than Liverpool, exceeding the current 5 point gap.

All three sides have played Wolves, Chelsea, Brighton, and Bournemouth. Liverpool are the only side to have beaten all four. City have two wins and two losses against the same opponents, and Arsenal have a win, two draws, and a loss.

For a couple of sides pointing to Liverpool’s allegedly easier schedule as the reason they are top, they are technically correct, though not in the way they intended.

Of course, there are caveats. Of the four sides that Liverpool, City, and Arsenal faced, Liverpool have played all but Wolves at home, whereas City played them all away, and Arsenal were away to Chelsea and Bournemouth. Though, it must be said that neither have had an all-conquering Nottingham Forest rock up to their joint. City and Arsenal could also point to key injuries they have sustained, and perhaps a few (arguably) harsh refereeing decisions.

However, this is how seasons are. The old truism “the table never lies,” is not always, in fact, true. There are better times of year to play certain teams than others. Luck with injuries, either for your team or for your opponents, is not something that necessarily evens out over the course of a campaign. And an odd decision, be it for a second yellow for kicking the ball away, or deciding not to give a penalty when an opponent decides to play basketball or karate kick an opposing player in the box, can have major repercussions when the dust finally settles on the season.

The best team overall is not always the team that wins the league. Instead, it is the team that manages to both be brilliant, ride their luck, and most consistently beat the teams in front of them that are crowned champions at the end of the season.

Photo by PAUL ELLIS/AFP via Getty Images Nothing to see here

So are Liverpool in a “false” position? Hardly. It is not just the league position and wins on the board that is giving me hope for another league title this season.

The underlying numbers for Arne Slot’s Reds are excellent. According to understat, Liverpool are leading the league in expected goals (xG), expected goals against (xGA), and xPTS, and not by insignificant margins.

Liverpool have created marginally more expected goals than Manchester City, 24.62 xG to 23.88 xG, are more defensively solid than the next best defense Fulham, 10.82 xGA to 12.39 xGA, and ahead in expected points over, surprisingly, Fulham again, 24.05 xPTS to 21.54 xPTS. Defensively, City and Arsenal are far behind Liverpool, with 14.51xGA and 15.38xGA, good enough for 5th and 6th, respectively. City are third in expected points on 20.03 xPTS, and Arsenal are seventh with 17.88 xPTS.

All told, Liverpool are averaging an xG differential–that is the difference in xG and xGA–of 1.25 per match, whereas City (0.77) and Arsenal (0.67) are lagging significantly behind. If you are creating an xG differential of over 1 xG per match, you’ll win a lot of football matches, which is precisely what Arne Slot’s Liverpool are doing.

And as highlighted above, it’s not so easy to point to an easier schedule as a reason for being so that better on both sides of the ball as Arsenal and Manchester City.

Of course there’s a lot of football left to go. The football gods are fickle bitches, and can cause an injury crisis with just a few key injuries. Or teams could figure out how to effectively counteract Slotball, or multiple players become fatigued and lose form, and our underlying stats could take a dip.

On the other hand, 5 years ago, Liverpool beat Aston Villa and then Manchester City came to town, only to leave with a 7-point gap. This time, Liverpool has beaten a better Villa side, and will have the opportunity to send City back down the M-62 with potentially an 8-point gap (or more).

We’ve seen Liverpool start a season hot, ride the crest of the wave through winter, until even Pep’s great Manchester City side raised the white flag. History might not repeat, but it very well might rhyme. At the moment, it’s not just the league position that should give us all hope.

These Reds are mustard. Let’s enjoy every moment of it.